That’s what some silly folks are saying over at the mises.org forums. That the theorem only says what happened, not what must always happen. [Look at my article, Bitcoin Takes a Beating, for info about what the theorem says, complete with chapter and verse and Smiling Dave's exposition].
Let me enlighten them.
First, let’s appeal to authority, shall we. Here are a few respected Austrians talking about the Theorem, and what it claims. All emphases mine:
Rothbard: On the other hand, while money had to originate as a directly useful commodity, for example, gold, there is no reason, in the light of the regression theorem, why such direct uses must continue afterward for the commodity to be used as money. Once established as a money, gold or gold substitutes can lose or be deprived of their direct use function and still continue as money; for the historical reference to a previous day’s purchasing power will already have been established.*53
Note he says HAD to originate, not historically did by accident.
Professor Shostak: The theorem shows that money must emerge as a commodity.
Tim Terrell: One of the consequences of the regression theorem is that money must arise from a commodity already in general use. If there is no nonmonetary use for the good, it will not develop the widespread demand that must precede its use as a medium of exchange. As Mises’s student Murray Rothbard wrote, money “cannot be created out of thin air by any sudden ‘social compact’ or edict of government.”[2] But once a good develops a monetary nature, it is there to stay. The nonmonetary uses are no longer necessary to maintain the good’s monetary value, because there is already a set of prices based on that good.
[Note to the bitcoin folks: Yes, money must first be "in general use" with "widespread demand". which bitcoin lacks. One Pete Sudra thinks that a couple of guys at a small convention using bitcoins for a couple of days is enough to prove bitcoin is money. Grow up, Pete. General use and widespread demand is more than you and your drinking buddies.]
And now, the coup de grace, Mises himself in Money and Credit:
The Necessity for a Value Independent of the Monetary Function
before an Object can serve as Money
If the objective exchange-value of money must always be linked
with a pre-existing market exchange-ratio between money and
other economic goods (since otherwise individuals would not be in a
position to estimate the value of the money), it follows that an object
cannot be used as money unless, at the moment when its use as
money begins, it already possesses an objective exchange-value
based on some other use. This provides both a refutation of those
theories which derive the origin of money from a general agreement
to impute fictitious value to things intrinsically valueless, [like those stupid bitcoins] and a confirmation of Menger’s hypothesis concerning the origin of the use of money.
This link with a pre-existing exchange-value is necessary not only
for commodity money, but equally for credit money and fiat money.’
No fiat money could ever come into existence if it did not satisfy this
condition...
There you go. He mentions bitcoins explicitly. Of course, you guys know it’s a gag. Bitcoins didn’t exist in Mises lifetime. I inserted the piece in brackets tio show exactly where bitcoins fit into the scheme of things.
And guess what? Mises laid out the logic of the theorem here like it was an Aristotelean syllogysm. Impeccable logic. Apodictically certain. [An in joke, don't worry about it]. Which means George Selgin and Pete Kinsella and Phil Bagus goofed on this one. Sorry guys.
One last minor note in this head hunting piece, written under the influence. Whenever I use the phrase “intrinsic value” over at the forums, some newbie will say sanctimoniously that nothing has intrinsic value, it’s all subjective as Mises taught me, bla bla. Well Mises right here used the phrase intrinsic value. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Hi again Dave, another stupid question: Would the price of the electricity needed to mine a BitCoin not represent its intrinsic/initial value?
http://smilingdavesblog.blogspot.com/2012/07/bitcoin-and-intrinsic-value.html
What about euro? Wasn’t it created as a de novo fiat currency?
Yes it was. But it was linked to the previous currency when it was created, which was linked to gold when it was created. At each step of the way, people knew exactly what what they were getting.
So, why shouldn’t the same happen to bitcoin? At every step of the way, people know how much they get for a bitcoin, just like they know how much they are getting for a euro. And they may come to prefer bitcoins over dollars or euros because they are less (or not) inflationary.
I.e., you (and Mises) might be right that bitcoins would not arise spontaneously as a currency if every fiat currency would go up in smoke tomorrow. But as long as some fiat currency is accepted as money (and argue as much against it as you want, but I bet you take dollars as payment for your job; and if you want to buy some beer, you trade it in for the hateful green toilet paper; if that’s not the case, I’d like to know), bitcoins can become money on top of it, just like euro.
What am I missing?
The market for bitcoin is volatile. Nobody pretends to know what its price will be two weeks from now.
Especially if someone tries to sell a large quantity, which may very well collapse the whole market.
This has happened time and again to moneys that were given an arbitrary initial value. Do a search on this humble blog for the Ithaca Hour.
Just in general, to help you get a feel for what the real world thinks about bitcoin, ask all your neighbors and non nerd friends, a sampling of the vast majority of the universe, a few questions:
1. Have they heard of bitcoin?
2. Are they willing to exchange their paycheck from now on completely into bitcoin?
3. How much will their weekly bag of groceries cost them in bitcoins?
4. Tell them you are a bitcoin dealer and get a tiny commission from every bitcoin they buy. How many bitcoins do they want today?
5. How much will they pay now for a delivery of bitcoin in two weeks?
6. What are the first ten things they will buy with a bitcoin?
But now you’re making a different argument: that the markets are volatile and underdeveloped. But that doesn’t mean it is not money today and cannot become a more widely used money in the future; it all depends on how popular it becomes.
In principle, the same is true for anything that has intrinsic value: for instance, if I argued that silver buttons can be used as money today, you could ask the same questions about those. But they *have* been used as money in the past (19th-century England) after they became a popular replacement for the state-issued currency.
I.e., if you want to argue that the activation energy for something like bitcoin to become money is too high, I won’t argue; I simply don’t know. But if you’re arguing that bitcoin cannot in principle become money due to the Regression Theorem, then I don’t see how that makes sense because of what I wrote in the previous post.
I’m not talking about activation energy at all.
As for silver coins, they have intrinsic value, obviously. So that a person offered a silver button would have an estimate in his mind of how useful it is for him, and that would be its initial value.
And it’s not a different argument. The argument is always the same. Since a bitcoin in and of itself, meaning not to pass on to the other guy, is useless, the only value it has is guessing how much the next guy will trade it for. Such a value is meaningless to most people, who want to get something they know with close to certainty they will be able to use to buy what they want. Why should the next guy not wise up and decide, you know, I’m only going to give you ten units of widget instead of twenty. Take it or leave it. Nothing to stop him. The whole so called market may collapse in a moment, just like the Ithaca Hour did and all those other monies, and for the same reason, because it has no use intrinsically. And right now it’s certainly not in wide demand. Why should I gamble that it ever will be?